Usually throwing every single asset left in your franchise to chase a ring, historically hasn’t been exactly the safest decision ever. When Billy King decided to throw his franchise away for a retirement home, it crippled the Nets Franchise for practically the next decade. Around the same time the Lakers threw all their chips on the table for a dinosaur Nash and an injured Dwight which resulted in extreme failure. Even this past year the Clippers traded their entire draft capital up until 2027 for Pandemic P and well we saw how that turned out for them. Although these failed superteams are hilarious for jokes, some franchises have thrown their entire future away to chase a ring, sometimes justified through a finals win. Specifically, the last Lebron stint in Cleveland was spent going all in getting any piece possible to surround Lebron to compete with the Warriors. While the trades didn’t result in a championship ring after the trade of Kyrie, it did result in a grim future for the rest of the Cavs left on-roster. After a 2nd straight sub 30 win %, can the Cavs get back on-track to be championship hopefuls through a future backcourt of Colin Sexton and Darius Garland?
During the last Lebron year when he went superhuman to carry that horrific roster to the finals, a common topic during the regular season was a trade for another superstar. Specifically, the package that was hailed as the holy grail of trade packages was Iman Shumpert, Tristan Thompson, and the Nets Pick. Unsurprisingly, no franchise-altering piece was moved for Shumpert’s 7.5 point per game and Thompson’s $82 million deal. Whether the Cavs knew Lebron was out to LA or not, instead the Cavs opted to select the Alabama Point Guard, Collin Sexton, with the 8th pick in the 2018 draft. And I’m no GM or coach but I will go out on a limb and say that when your team feels your top 10 pick doesn’t know how to play basketball, it’s uh less than ideal. While throwing out that he doesn’t know how to play basketball is for sure extreme, in general Sexton’s rookie year was a bit worrisome. At the time Sexton was supposed to be the point guard of the future, but saw his assist number almost match his turnover number, Sexton finished dead last in Defensive Win Shares at -0.5, and for the most part was a relatively inefficient scorer. After a putrid 19-63 which saw them tied for the 2nd worst record in the league, the Cavs opted to take another point guard, Darius Garland out of Vanderbilt with the 5th pick. After Sexton struggled in his first year with Garland coming in to hopefully help his case, how did the backcourt fare in each aspect of the game in just their first year together?
Scoring:
After this year there’s no doubt that one thing Collin Sexton can do is score a basketball. For the season Sexton averaged 20.8, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists points per game on 47.2% from the field, 38% from three, and 84.6% from the line. Sexton showcased he is able to do it all over the floor no matter the defensive attention, specifically in the paint. On 14 drives a night he shot a respectable 47.6% and an outstanding 62% at the rim. Given that natural ability as a slasher defenses have now begun to sag off to try and stop that drive, but as he showed he was more than capable of taking what they gave him with 38% from 3 on 4 attempts a game. In just 2 years Sexton has gone from a raw, semi-inefficent scorer at Alabama to an efficient volume scorer and with how highly-touted his work-ethic is, I see no reason to see this as his absolute ceiling. Not to mention Sexton plays with a passion and fire that just cannot be coached which is vital if the Cavs can get better pieces surrounding him as he has that will to take over in crunchtime.
On the other hand scoring the basketball for Darius Garland this past year was not so pretty. On the year he averaged 12.3 points, 1.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, on a highly-inefficient 40.1% from the field, but basically league-average 35.5% from beyond the arc on 5 attempts a game. Given the fact that Garland practically jumped from high school to NBA and was immediately thrusted into the starting line-up, it’s not a shocker he struggled at times trying to find his stride. No matter how skilled Garland may be it was clear that he wasn’t ready for the size and speed that NBA defenders brought. In fact, coming into this season Garland was the same height and weight as me and that is NEVER a recipe for success in any capacity, and it showed. Particularly, when Garland was driving and attempting to finish at the rim it got ugly as on 11 drives per night he shot 44.5% and an even worse, absolutely putrid 46.8% at the rim. If he wants to be able to capitalize at the rim he needs to either work on craftier finish or upper-body strength, but likely a combination of both. When he did put it together on the offensive end he showcased flashes of brilliance that if he put together should be hard to stop on that end. When he has the ball in his hands he’s exceptional going laterally with his crossovers and is great at changing speed and direction on a dime. Garland has all the potential to be elite shooting off the dribble with his release and handle which entirely changes offenses in today’s NBA.
Playmaking:
I’m sure at this point if you’re watching this video and have ever watched a video or read about Collin Sexton prior to this you would see people preach about how bad his playmaking and passing is, however, I’m not sure people realize how bad it actually is. At a glance the 3.0 assists to 2.4 turnovers is poor for sure, but taking a deeper dive into it it somehow gets worse. At 6.2 potential assists per game noted terrific playmakers Kevin Huerter, Julius Randle and Luke Kennard all rank ahead of him. On that same note Per 100 possessions god-like playmakers Kelly Olynyk, Solomon Hill, and Rondae-Hollis Jefferson all rank ahead of his 4.4 assists. Furthermore, on those 14 drives a night I mentioned previously Sexton averaged .9 assists to .8 turnovers, so for those who struggle with math for every 1 assist he records a turnover follows. It’s not that teams can’t win with poor playmakers, but at a certain level as bad as this it can completely hinder an offense on countless possessions. For instance, when he drives to the rim defenses constantly collapse on Sexton’s drives and fill the paint with 3-4 people as they have no faith in Sexton making the kick out or dropping it off for a big. If he can even make that kick out pass half the time it keeps the defense honest and either Sexton has more room as a gifted finisher or they are slow to contest on a wide-open 3. Although for how bad as it is now he has significantly improved since he entered the league, and has even greatly improved since December, and given his backcourt partner all he has to do is be able to make those simple passes and not kill all ball movement.
On the other hand Darius Garland looks like more than a capable passer who could hopefully make up for a lot of the woes on that end while Sexton still develops. Although much like Sexton at a glance his 3.9 assists to 2.6 turnovers is by no means spectacular, watching Garland play is an entirely different story and he was constantly developing. In Garland’s first 30 games he averaged 3.0 assists to 2.5 turnovers and in his next 28 after the Jordan Clarkson trade he averaged 4.8 assists to those 2.6 turnovers. As Garland got his feet wet in the league and got more comfortable he improved drastically ending the year with 7.7 potential assists a game. What was most intriguing is as I stated watching Garland play he constantly looked for the roll-man or the pop as well as a kick out on drives. He has that natural vision that you want as a point guard and as his offensive repertoire improves it should open up the offense more allowing for easy passes as the defense keys in on him and Sexton. Lastly, a stat I stumbled upon which is as hopeful as it is sad is that in the 59 games played this year, he had 23 such games with 5+ assists, as many as Sexton has had in his 147 career games.
Defense:
Throughout this point in their careers it might be better to just play two JV level guards on the defensive end. From the eye test Garland and Sexton were both horrible defenders, however, well actually the stats say exactly that and may honestly make it worse. If fans thought that Collin Sexton was horrible on defense last year they did them no favors as Garland this year might have been equally as bad or even worse. However, before ripping on them too much I want to at least give props to Sexton who in his own right has improved on the defensive end in his second season. Last year, he finished the year last in Defensive Win Shares, Defensive Plus-Minus, and in Defensive Rating so basically every advanced stat you could possibly think of. This past year, Sexton went from -0.5 win shares all the way to a positive .4 and went from dead last in Defensive Plus-Minus to 6th, which is technically an improvement, but at the end of the day he at least shows constant effort on that end. For Garland, he was just Sexton 2.0 at the end and finished the year last in Defensive Win Shares, Defensive Plus-Minus, and 3rd to last in Defensive Rating, and constantly looked like he was getting abused on the defensive end. Unless one of them can transform themselves to become an average defender on that end there’s no reason to think that a backcourt who are both bottom 5 guards in defense can be successful.
Outlook:
As bad as the stats may make it look at time or how much hate either guard has gotten the past two years, personally I really think they can make this backcourt work. Even if the backcourt fails to succeed trading away one of the two at this point in like some have suggested is a horrible idea. Either you are completely giving up on your 5th overall pick, who hasn’t even got an offseason to train yet, for sunken cost or are giving up a 21 year old elite scorer for “a better fit” even though as of now players fit is the least of this Cavs teams worries and should be looking for talent. Instead of completely giving up on either player I wanted to take a look at some players who were compared or similar to Garland and Sexton in their first couple seasons to see that they still have serious potential to grow. Firstly for Garland, taking a look at elite shooters off the dribble who aren’t particularly great defenders such as Damian Lillard, Kemba Walker, and Jamal Murray all 3 of them struggled in at least some of the same areas as Jamal and Kemba who were extremely inefficient scorers who posted their worst assist to turnover ratio of their careers. All 3 of them were seriously bad defenders and Lillard and Walker struggled at the rim, Walker at 50% at the rim and Lillard at 53%. Secondly for Sexton, I wanted to take a look at other undersized two guards that weren’t great facilitators early on like CJ Mccollum, Monta Ellis, and Bradley Beal. In the case of CJ McCollum and Monta Ellis their numbers are eerily similar for Ellis’s 2nd year and McCollum’s 3rd year to this past year of Sexton.
The Closeout 